Analyst’s Model Puts Lighter Points at $83–$100 Under Airdrop Assumptions

📌 Perp DEX Valuation: An Analysis Suggests Lighter Points Could Reach $100

(The Potential of Lighter After Hyperliquid & Aster: A Simple but Intriguing Calculation)
English version 👉 x.com19718716685588…

Interest in the perpetual decentralized exchange (Perp DEX) market has risen sharply in recent months. In particular, the performance of Hyperliquid($HL) and Aster($ASTER) has drawn attention across the industry.

Perp DEXs are attracting attention for more than being a new trend. Regulatory and trust issues at centralized exchanges (CEXs) are pushing more capital toward decentralized exchanges, and Perp DEXs, which support futures and leveraged trading, are among the fastest-growing areas.

Against this backdrop, an analyst proposed a model for estimating an exchange’s value by comparing two measures: how many tokens are actually in circulation and how much money is committed to open positions on the platform, or open interest (OI).

This is not an official report or a set of definitive figures. It is better understood as an illustrative calculation. Even a simple model like this, however, can offer a different perspective on a project.

Applying the method to Lighter, which has not yet issued a token, produces the following figures.

Current OI: approximately 1.192 billion

Assuming 20% of the total token supply is released to the market through an airdrop:
• Estimated market capitalization: 1.0 billion–1.1 billion
• Fully diluted valuation (FDV): 5.0 billion–5.5 billion

Taking the points system into account, if 12 million points represent 20% of the tokens:
👉 Each point would be worth approximately $83–$100.

All of this is a simulation. The actual value could vary depending on several major factors:

• How quickly open interest grows after the beta ends
• How strong market hype is when the token launches
• Whether a flywheel exists that allows token holders to earn returns

[#PerpDEX](?q=%23PerpDEX) [#Hyperliquid](?q=%23Hyperliquid) $HL [#Aster](?q=%23Aster) $ASTER [#Lighter](?q=%23Lighter) [#Crypto](?q=%23Crypto) [#DeFi](?q=%23DeFi) [#DEX](?q=%23DEX) [#Blockchain](?q=%23Blockchain) [#Tokenomics](?q=%23Tokenomics)

OI → Money committed to open positions on the platform

Market Cap vs FDV → Current value vs potential total value

Points → Something like coupons distributed before a token is issued

Flywheel → A mechanism that makes holding the token financially rewarding

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For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Invest at your own risk.
This material is for informational purposes and is not investment advice. You are responsible for your own investment decisions.