--- title: "Five Historical Market Crises and a Speculative Look at MSTR’s Risks" date: 2026-04-08T06:54:02+00:00 canonical: https://funkyonchain.pages.dev/en/p/최근-시장-상황이-계속-얼어붙어-있다-보니-다들-지치고-답답하실-거라-생각합니다/ original: https://t.me/funkyonchain/2196 publisher: Funkyonchain lang: ko license: CC-BY-4.0 --- # Five Historical Market Crises and a Speculative Look at MSTR’s Risks > With the market remaining frozen, I imagine many of you are tired and frustrated. In the previous post, I spoke seriously about keeping to our own pace. Today, for a change of mood, I thought I’d share something a little different and perhaps interesting. With the market remaining frozen, I imagine many of you are tired and frustrated. In the previous post, I spoke seriously about keeping to our own pace. Today, for a change of mood, I thought I’d share something a little different and perhaps interesting. I wrote this analysis while watching the market in early March. Once I had put it together, though, it sounded so much like a Wall Street conspiracy theory or a financial thriller that I couldn’t bring myself to publish it and put it away instead. But with the market still so quiet and cold, I thought it might be worth cautiously sharing as something to read over a cup of coffee. Please treat it purely as a believe-it-or-not story or an interesting bit of background reading, and enjoy it for what it is. I am, of course, still active in the market. This channel focuses on keeping notifications to a minimum, so I generally avoid posting unless there is an important market update. If you’d like to hear from me more often, I share lighter posts here: https://t.me/funkyongamble ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Wall Street's Hunt: 5 Historical Patterns & MSTR Risks 👉 Read the English version here: https://x.com/funky_onchain_/status/2041770982239858847?s=20 Wall Street’s Hunt Repeats: Five Historical Patterns and the Hidden Risks for MSTR The question that started this is one of the most common in the community lately: “Why does the price keep falling when MSTR is buying BTC so aggressively?” Why isn’t accumulation by the world’s largest corporate whale a powerful bullish signal? That question is where this story begins. The strange phenomenon visible in the market may not be mere coincidence or profit-taking. From a financial engineering perspective, an emerging view is that it represents another chapter in the ruthless “predatory trades” Wall Street has repeatedly carried out with vast amounts of capital. Looking back through financial history, Wall Street has repeatedly used the same approach: identify a large player excessively concentrated in one asset, cut off its funding, force it to sell and scoop up the assets cheaply. The situation at MicroStrategy (MSTR), now a major focus of the market, has strong echoes of this pattern, which has recurred over the past 200 years. Let’s compare five historical examples with the current situation. ① Goldman Sachs vs. Lehman Brothers (2008): The Consequences of Excessive Leverage • What happened: Lehman controlled $680 billion in real estate assets with $22.5 billion in equity, a leverage ratio of 30 times. As markets froze and major institutions including Goldman Sachs stopped trading with it, Lehman’s credit rating fell, its funding was cut off and it went bankrupt. Wall Street rivals ultimately absorbed its clients and valuable assets. • The MSTR comparison: MSTR is also accumulating Bitcoin using leverage through corporate bond and at-the-market (ATM) share issuance. With its assets concentrated in Bitcoin, a weakening credit rating or stock premium could leave it facing the kind of funding cutoff Lehman experienced. ② JPMorgan vs. Bear Stearns (2008): Rumors, a Bank Run and a Cut-Price Acquisition • What happened: Bear Stearns, which held excessive amounts of subprime mortgage assets, faced a customer run after market rumors that it was at risk of bankruptcy. Its stock, once as high as $170, plunged, and JPMorgan, backed by the Federal Reserve, ultimately acquired it in a forced deal at the startlingly low price of $2 per share. • The MSTR comparison: What if large investors concentrate short selling and FUD—fear and uncertainty—on MSTR during a Bitcoin downturn? If a collapsing share price and premium deepen the crisis, someone could present themselves as a rescuer and try to acquire MSTR’s Bitcoin assets cheaply. ③ George Soros vs. the Bank of England (1992): The Collapse of ‘Never Sell’ • What happened: On what became known as Black Wednesday, the Bank of England committed itself to defending the pound’s exchange rate as a matter of national pride. George Soros, however, placed an enormous $10 billion short bet. After exhausting substantial foreign exchange reserves, the Bank of England gave in. Soros made $1 billion in a single day. • The MSTR comparison: Michael Saylor continues to declare each week that he will never sell Bitcoin. It echoes the Bank of England’s defense of the exchange rate. Whether one company’s resolve can hold out against downward pressure from the market’s largest pools of capital remains uncertain. ④ The Hunt Brothers vs. the Exchanges (1980): When the Referee Changes the Rules (⭐️ The Closest Parallel) • What happened: The Hunt brothers cornered one-third of the world’s silver, driving the price from $6 to $50. The exchanges then abruptly introduced a rule prohibiting purchases and allowing only sales. Silver prices immediately plunged, the Hunt brothers went bankrupt and Wall Street bought their silver cheaply. • The MSTR comparison: One company, MSTR, is now accumulating a substantial share of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. What if regulators or the market system suddenly change the rules? The most unsettling scenario is a repeat of the forced liquidation that befell the Hunt brothers. ⑤ Hedge Funds vs. Asia (1997): The Hunt During a Macroeconomic Crisis • What happened: As Asian countries struggled with dollar-denominated debt, hedge funds including Soros’s brought down economies by shorting their currencies. Under IMF bailout programs, key national assets and stakes in strong companies passed to foreign capital at rock-bottom prices. • The MSTR comparison: If a macroeconomic downturn hits crypto, outside players could offer MSTR a supposed bailout during a liquidity crisis while structuring a deal to take its Bitcoin holdings at the bottom. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔄 Summary: Wall Street’s Unchanging Six-Stage Playbook 1. Targeting: A player becomes excessively concentrated in one asset, as with MSTR’s all-in bet on Bitcoin. 2. Leverage: The player relies on external funding and leverage, as with MSTR’s continued premium-based capital raising. 3. Pressure: An attacker squeezes funding and sentiment, through ETF outflows and short-selling attacks. 4. Resistance: The target clings to and declares its conviction that it will never sell. 5. Surrender and liquidation: The target eventually reaches its liquidity limit, faces a cash-flow crunch and sells cheaply. 6. Predation: The attacker acquires the assets, the market recovers and the predator alone makes a substantial profit. Looking at the market now, stages five and six of this bitter formula may be drawing closer. The public always wants to believe that “this time is different,” but the underlying greed of capital markets and the history of these hunts have not changed once in 200 years. Of course, this is only an imaginative story built on parallels with history. But keeping a range of possible risks behind whale activity in mind may be useful background knowledge for surviving this difficult market. Stay calm for the rest of the day. For informational purposes only. This report represents a market hypothesis and does not constitute financial or legal advice. Invest at your own risk. --- 출처 / Source: Funkyonchain — https://funkyonchain.pages.dev/en/p/최근-시장-상황이-계속-얼어붙어-있다-보니-다들-지치고-답답하실-거라-생각합니다/ 원문 / Original Telegram post: https://t.me/funkyonchain/2196